o:2378 CAUSALITY BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES: SERBIAN CASE en The aim of this study is to overcome the lack of empirical research dealing with the main factors of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia, analyzing periods of currency crises and creating an early warning system to anticipate the upcoming currency crises. Using econometric analysis, this paper examines the determinants of currency crises episodes during the period from January 2007 to May 2018, and based on this, it makes proposals for economic policy makers. It has been shown that dominant factors are those that bind mostly with the effect of factors from the external environment, which is important in assessing and forecasting potential crises in the Republic of Serbia. More specifically, the obtained results indicate that the overvaluation of the national currency, current account balance as a percentage of GDP, imports and stock exchange index are statistically significant variables. Facta Universitatis, Series: Economics and Organization, 16(4), pp. 443–459. currency crisis, early warning system, EMP index, probit model 1552099 10.22190/FUEO1904443M 2024-03-07T15:00:06.499Z 44 no 46 Ivana Marjanović Faculty of Economics, University of Niš 2019 46 Milan Marković Innovation Center, University of Niš application/pdf 544007 https://phaidrani.ni.ac.rs/o:2378 no yes 18 70 92000001 18A15